Title:  Health impacts forecasting to guide hydropower design and policy

Abstract:

Hydroelectric power accounts for the majority of renewable generation worldwide, with global installed capacity expected to double by 2050. However, there is a lack of tools to screen siting and design decisions according to environmental and human health impacts. Flooding associated with reservoir creation produces a pulse of bioaccumulative, neurotoxic methylmercury (MeHg), often prompting fish consumption advisories to reduce human exposures. In Canada and elsewhere, this predominantly affects food-insecure indigenous populations who rely on local foods for intake of key nutrients. This work develops predictive methods to forecast MeHg impacts as a function of reservoir design parameters and local geological conditions. Using the case study of the Labrador Inuit, this work evaluates the significance of hydroelectric development for overall MeHg exposure increases and human health risks in the context of constrained dietary alternatives. Health impact simulation suggests that, for most individuals, risks associated with reduced intake of local foods (and therefore reduced nutritional sufficiency) are greater than risks attributable to increased exposures to MeHg from hydroelectric development. This work demonstrates that predictive tools can be developed to select sites and produce designs that develop hydropower resources while minimizing MeHg exposure risks, and that a unified health modeling framework can improve decision-making around risk mitigation.  

Bio: Dr. Calder's research quantifies environmental and human health impacts of civil infrastructure and policy interventions. He holds a doctorate in environmental health from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, as well as master and bachelor degrees in civil engineering from Concordia University, Canada. His expertise centers on integrated modeling of fate and transport of waterborne contaminants, and the resulting human exposures and health outcomes. Ryan is more broadly interested in environmental policy and global energy transitions.